Manchester City hoisting their fourth straight Premier League trophy on the final day of the 2023-24 season came as no surprise to most fans. The Cityzens have claimed six of the last seven titles, with only Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool interrupting their dominance during the COVID-ravaged 2019-20 season.
It seems that a global disruption is one of the few variables capable of derailing City’s dominance. However, the introduction of points deductions for Everton and Nottingham Forest in 2023-24, and the trial of new Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules—Squad Cost Rules (SCR) and Top to Bottom Anchoring rules (TBA)—in the upcoming 2024-25 season, could introduce enough margin for a more competitive league table.
The effects of the FFP rule changes are already evident. Deloitte reported that the gross spend in the January 2024 transfer window fell to £100 million, a sharp drop from the record £815 million spent in January 2023—a staggering 88% decrease.
While summer spending has exceeded £1.2 billion so far, Manchester City accounts for less than 2% of that expense. This total is just half of what was spent by Premier League clubs in the 2023 summer transfer window. With the transfer window closing on August 30th at 11 pm UK time, we may still see significant movement.
In addition, improvements to Video Assistant Referee (VAR) and the introduction of semi-automated offside technology aim to level the playing field in terms of officiating. However, these measures alone won't curb the financial firepower of the top clubs. Nevertheless, the collective impact of these changes might shake up the Premier League table.
This season also marks the return of three promoted sides from the Championship: Southampton, former Premier League champions Leicester City, and Ipswich Town, returning after a 22-year absence. While these teams are more likely to be battling relegation than challenging for top honors, Ipswich Town has already broken their transfer record with the signing of Omari Hutchinson. This addition could bolster Kieran McKenna’s squad, which is only the fifth team ever to achieve back-to-back promotions on the way to the Premier League from League One. As a bandwagon fan of the Tractor Boys, I'm rooting for them to stay up. They represent the humble values of a bygone era, standing in stark contrast to the sovereign wealth-backed giants of Manchester City, et al.
Here’s our take on who will finish higher or lower than their previous season’s standing:
| Standing | Team | H/L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | Lower | Lost some firepower through the sale of Julian Alvarez; Arsenal is closing the gap. |
| 2 | Arsenal | Higher | Strengthened defense; potential midfield and attack signings; a healthy Jesus. |
| 3 | Liverpool | Lower | New manager; no significant signings to refresh an aging squad. |
| 4 | Aston Villa | Lower | Lost .77 G+A per game with departures; added defensive strength but still a concern. |
| 5 | Tottenham | Higher | Strong addition of Solanke; need James Madison to stay healthy. |
| 6 | Chelsea | Lower | Continuous rebuild; inconsistency likely. |
| 7 | Newcastle | Higher | Expecting more consistency after a stumble in the middle-third of last season. |
| 8 | Man United | Lower | Another roller-coaster season expected with incoherent squad management and transfer policies. |
| 9 | West Ham | Higher | Reinforcements in attack and defense. |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | Lower | Significant loss of offensive production, inadequate replacements. |
| 11 | Brighton | Lower | Average goal-scoring team; lost key playmaker Pascal Gross. |
| 12 | Bournemouth | Lower | Will struggle to replace a striker who scored nearly half of their goals last season. |
| 13 | Fulham | Lower | Lost critical players; Emile Smith-Rowe could be a spark if he stays healthy. |
| 14 | Wolves | Lower | Good attackers, but who will feed them after Neto’s switch to Chelsea? |
| 15 | Everton | Higher | No points deduction to contend with this season; anemic attack still needs improvement. |
| 16 | Brentford | Higher | Stable club; minor additions; should improve. |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | Lower | Lacks depth and quality in attack; relegation risk. |
| 18 | Leicester City | Lower | Insufficient spending; new manager; likely to drop. |
| 19 | Ipswich Town | Higher | On track to avoid the drop with solid transfer expenditure. Uppa Towen! |
| 20 | Southampton | Lower | Investment present but defense needs significant improvement in top-flight battles. |
A special note on newly promoted sides: An analysis of the last 10 seasons (2014-15 through 2023-24) reveals that half of the newly promoted teams managed to avoid relegation—a 50% success rate. This gives hope to Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton for the upcoming season.
Among the 30 promoted teams over the last decade, the average number of transfers in was 23. The successful teams averaged 23.4 transfers, while those relegated averaged 22.6—showing a negligible difference. However, average transfer expenditure reveals a significant disparity. The successful teams spent an average of €97.8 million (adjusted for inflation), which is 67% more than the relegated teams, who averaged €58.5 million.
So far, Ipswich Town has spent the most among the newly promoted sides, approaching the average spend for teams that avoided relegation. Meanwhile, Leicester is far below the investment required to stay up; Southampton is about half way there.
Of course, there's still time for transfers to be made before the window closes. But not all transfer spending guarantees success. Chelsea’s recent profligate spending under Todd Boehly and Burnley’s €111 million expenditure last season are clear examples that big spending doesn't always equate to squad improvement.
The Premier League kicks off on Friday, August 16, with Fulham hosting Manchester United. Our mascot, Gus, has his picks for the first round of games if you're looking for betting tips:
Gus Bits
- Manchester United vs Fulham: Fulham +1.5
- Arsenal vs Wolves: Arsenal -1.5
- Ipswich Town vs Liverpool: Liverpool -1.5
- Everton vs Brighton: Draw
- Newcastle vs Southampton: Newcastle -1.5
- Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth: Draw
- West Ham vs Aston Villa: Villa +0.5
- Brentford vs Crystal Palace: Brentford -0.5
- Chelsea vs Manchester City: Man City -0.5
- Leicester City vs Tottenham: Tottenham -0.5
That’s our preview and predictions for the 2024-25 season, as well as the first round of matches. It’s set to be an exciting season, and I'll be tracking it all in my copy of The Keeper. Get yours here.